Science News Online (12/19-26/98): The Greatest Story = Ever Told

From: Subject: Science News Online (12/19-26/98): The Greatest Story Ever Told Date: Mon, 16 Jun 2003 00:24:41 -0400 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_005E_01C3339D.ADE2A660"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_005E_01C3339D.ADE2A660 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.sciencenews.org/sn_arc98/12_19_98/Bob1.htm Science News Online (12/19-26/98): The Greatest Story = Ever Told

3D"SCIENCE =

December 19 & 26, 1998

The Greatest Story Ever=20 Told

Is cosmology solved?

By RON COWEN

Scientists don't = often make=20 great debaters. Rather than dealing with absolutes in black and white, = they=20 tend to invoke qualifiers and caveats in shades of gray. But = cosmologist=20 Michael S. Turner, whose hand-drawn viewgraphs are so colorful that = they have=20 adorned the walls of an art gallery, isn't the typical scientist, and = 1998=20 hasn't been the typical year for the study of the universe.

In an October forum=97billed as "The Nature of the Universe Debate: = Cosmology=20 Solved?"=97Turner, who is at the University of Chicago and the Fermi = National=20 Accelerator Laboratory in Batavia, Ill., put forth an assertion as = bold as his=20 drawings: For the first time in history, cosmologists have developed a = consistent framework that integrates the origin, evolution, and = current=20 appearance of the universe.

Turner's opponent in the debate, Jim Peebles of Princeton = University, took=20 a more conservative view of recent progress in deciphering the cosmos. = He=20 prescribed caution in concluding that the key pieces of the cosmic = puzzle have=20 all been revealed.

The past year could mark a turning point for cosmology, Turner told = a=20 packed auditorium at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of = Natural=20 History in Washington, D.C.

Clearly, 1998 began with a jolt: Two rival teams studying the = titanic=20 explosion of distant, elderly stars overturned the prevailing belief = that the=20 cosmos has been slowing down its rate of expansion ever since the Big = Bang. In=20 fact, they reported, the universe is actually flying apart faster than = ever=20 before (SN: 3/21/98, p. 185; 10/31/98, p. 277).

Although entirely unexpected, that recent finding and others appear = to=20 unify elements of a cosmic portrait that have emerged over the past = decade,=20 Turner says. Stitching together such disparate concepts as energy = associated=20 with empty space, invisible matter in the universe, and the curvature = of the=20 cosmos, the new reports may turn out to mark a watershed for = cosmology. Their=20 impact could be every bit as important as the discovery more than 3 = decades=20 ago of the whisper of radiation left over from the Big Bang.

=A8 =A8 =A8

In 1964,=20 two physicists at Bell Laboratories in Holmdel, N.J., stumbled upon = key=20 evidence for the Big Bang. Scanning the sky with a radio receiver, = they=20 discovered a faint, uniform crackling. The pervasive nature of the = signal and=20 its intensity over a range of frequencies indicated that the radiation = could=20 not have come from the universe today. Instead, Arno Penzias and = Robert Wilson=20 concluded, it represents the radiation produced by the cosmos when it = was=20 young and extremely hot.

This radiation, known as the cosmic microwave background, is one of = the=20 cornerstones of the Big Bang theory. Along with measurements of the = abundance=20 of light elements forged just after the birth of the universe, the = microwave=20 background provides evidence that the universe began with the = explosive=20 expansion of a dense, hot soup of subatomic particles and radiation. =

A fog of electrons pervaded the infant universe. For thousands of = years=20 after the Big Bang, radiation did not stream freely into space but was = repeatedly absorbed and scattered by these charged particles.

About 300,000 years after the Big Bang, the universe became cool = enough for=20 the electrons to combine with nuclei. This lifted the fog, enabling = radiation=20 to travel unimpeded. Shifted to longer wavelengths by the expansion of = the=20 universe, this relic radiation is today detected as microwaves and=20 far-infrared light. It provides a snapshot of the universe when it was = 300,000=20 years old.

The Big Bang model has been phenomenally successful in explaining = the=20 events that took place beginning one-hundredth of a second after the = birth of=20 the universe. But by 1980, scientists trying to elucidate even earlier = cosmic=20 events were pushing the limits of the theory. The Big Bang model = offers no=20 explanation for the explosion itself, notes Turner. The dynamite that = produced=20 the Big Bang remains elusive.

The model has other shortcomings. It does not reveal the nature of = the=20 matter that fills the universe. Nor does it explain why the young = cosmos was=20 so smooth and uniform and how tiny fluctuations in the density of the = early=20 universe could give rise to the lumpy collection of galaxies, clusters = of=20 galaxies, and superclusters seen today.

A theory known as inflation, developed and refined during the = 1980s,=20 provides a partial answer to these riddles. In this theory, the cosmos = undergoes an extremely short but prodigious growth spurt. In just=20 10³² second, the universe expanded more than it has in = the 13=20 billion years or so that has elapsed since (SN: 6/7/97, p. 354).

This growth spurt captured chance subatomic fluctuations in energy = and=20 inflated them to macroscopic proportions. The action transformed the=20 fluctuations into regions of slightly higher and lower density. Over = time,=20 gravity molded these variations into the spidery network of galaxies = and voids=20 seen in the universe today.

In inflationary cosmology, quantum fluctuations provide the energy = for the=20 expansion. According to quantum theory, the vacuum of space is far = from empty.=20 It seethes with particles and antiparticles constantly being created = and=20 destroyed. Energy from this vacuum can be tapped and is more than = sufficient=20 to trigger the era of explosive expansion dubbed the Big Bang.

This scenario gained support from a 1992 discovery: The microwave=20 background does not have a uniform temperature but is full of hot = spots and=20 cold spots. The variations, a few ten-thousandths of a kelvin, were = detected=20 by the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite. They are thought = to=20 correspond to slight variations in the distribution of matter at the = moment=20 when light and matter parted company, and radiation streamed freely = into=20 space. This finding was hailed as proof that microscopic lumps in the = infant=20 cosmos, no bigger than about 10²³ centimeters across, = were the=20 seeds for the galaxies and other large-scale structures we see = today.

Inflation also explains the overall uniformity of the universe.=20 Conventional Big Bang cosmology cannot account for how regions of the = universe=20 separated by distances so large that they have never even exchanged = light=20 signals can look so similar to each other. According to inflation = theory, the=20 universe began with regions so tiny that they were homogeneous. These = regions=20 then expanded into volumes vastly bigger than astronomers can ever=20 observe.

Inflation makes the cosmos not only uniform but also flat. Any = curvature to=20 space-time is stretched out by the expansion, like a cosmic version of = a=20 balloon stretched to enormous proportions.

Over the past 4 years, nearly 20 ground-based and balloon-borne = telescopes=20 began measuring variations in the temperature of the cosmic microwave=20 background over small spatial scales. The pattern of variations is = known to be=20 sensitive to the shape of the cosmos (SN: 2/21/98, p. 123). The = measurements=20 are not yet conclusive, but they suggest that the geometry of the = universe is=20 indeed as flat as the inflation theory would predict.

For the universe to be flat, astronomers calculate that it must = contain a=20 critical density of material. A variety of observations, however, = including=20 measurements taken over the past year, has revealed that the universe = comes up=20 short: It doesn't have nearly enough matter to be flat.

Of the four types of lightweight nuclei forged in the Big Bang, = deuterium=20 is the most sensitive indicator of the density of ordinary matter, = which is=20 made of protons, neutrons, and electrons. The greater the density of=20 deuterium, the lower the density of ordinary matter (SN: 5/18/96, p. = 309).

Because stars burn deuterium, the amount present today is not a = good=20 indicator of the primordial abundance, Turner notes. By measuring = deuterium in=20 very distant, essentially starless, hydrogen clouds, which hail from a = time=20 when the universe was very young, David R. Tytler of the University of = California, San Diego and Scott Burles of the University of Chicago = this year=20 pinned down the amount of deuterium made in the Big Bang. Their = measurements=20 indicate that the density of ordinary matter contributes only 5 = percent of the=20 density needed for the universe to be flat.

Astronomers set their sights on clusters of galaxies to estimate = the total=20 density of matter in the cosmos, including exotic kinds of matter that = would=20 reveal their presence only through their gravitational influence. To = weigh=20 these behemoth clusters, the scientists use several methods. They = measure the=20 temperature of the X rays the clusters emit, and they determine the = random=20 motion of galaxies within a cluster.

With these methods, researchers recently found that the total = density of=20 matter is about 40 percent of the critical density.

This result has two profound implications, Turner notes. First, it = suggests=20 that most of the matter in the universe is not the familiar stuff that = rocks=20 and people are made of. Rather, it's some unseen, exotic material.

This dark matter could be remnants from the earliest, fiery moments = of the=20 universe, when high temperatures would have set the stage for the = creation of=20 a vast zoo of elementary particles. Slow-moving particles, generically = known=20 as cold dark matter, are the best candidates for this exotic material, = Turner=20 says. These particles would allow for the pattern of structures seen = in the=20 universe today, which indicates that it evolved from the bottom up, = forming=20 galaxies, then clusters of galaxies, and so on. Other theories had = suggested=20 that the large structures formed first, then fragmented.

The other consequence of the new measurements of matter density is = even=20 more startling. If the universe is flat, then there must be something = else=97a=20 special form of matter or energy (the two are equivalent according to=20 Einstein) that makes up the missing 60 percent of the critical = density. Turner=20 dubs this component "funny energy."

This special energy resists the gravitational pull of galaxies, so = it=20 distributes itself uniformly throughout the cosmos.

Funny energy "leads to a striking prediction," notes Turner. "The = expansion=20 of the universe should be speeding up, rather than slowing down."

How so? According to Einstein's theory of general relativity, = gravity=20 derives both from energy and matter and from pressure. The funny = energy=20 manifests itself as a negative pressure. If the universe contains a = large=20 enough component of funny energy, the net effect of gravity is to = exert a=20 repulsive, rather than an attractive, force. The expansion of the = universe=20 then accelerates rather than slows down.

In 1998, this bizarre state of affairs received tentative = confirmation. Two=20 teams of scientists, including researchers at the University of = California,=20 Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley (Calif.) National Laboratory, examined = a=20 distinct type of exploding star, or supernova. Previous studies have = suggested=20 that this type, known as a supernova Ia, has the same intrinsic = luminosity in=20 both nearby and distant galaxies.

Because the light from a faraway galaxy takes several billion years = to=20 reach Earth, telescopes see such a galaxy as it appeared when the = universe was=20 younger. If cosmic expansion had recently slowed, then there should be = less=20 distance between Earth and a faraway galaxy=97and a shorter travel = time for=20 light=97than if the expansion had maintained its speed. A supernova in = a distant=20 galaxy would look slightly brighter in the case of the slowed = expansion.

The researchers this year found exactly the opposite. Distant = supernovas=20 looked dimmer than expected, indicating that the universe has = increased its=20 rate of expansion.

Measurements of the geometry of the cosmos and the gravity within = it=20 finally add up, says Turner. "For the very first time, we have a = complete and=20 plausible accounting of matter and energy in the universe."

The avalanche of data now and expected over the next few years will = go a=20 long way toward explaining the basic features of the universe with a = theory=20 rooted in fundamental physics, Turner concludes. "What I want to argue = is that=20 in 1998, we had the first key evidence for a theory that takes us well = beyond=20 the hot Big Bang cosmology."

=A8 =A8 =A8

Turner's=20 debate opponent, Peebles, argues that nothing is settled until the = proverbial=20 fat lady sings=97and as far as Peebles is concerned, she hasn't sung = yet.=20 Cautioning his colleagues not to go overboard in their enthusiasm, = Peebles=20 recalled the words of a cosmologist of an earlier era, Willem de = Sitter, who=20 admonished in 1931 that "it should not be forgotten that all this talk = about=20 the universe involves a tremendous extrapolation, which is a very = dangerous=20 operation."

"Observational advances since then have greatly reduced the = danger," says=20 Peebles, "but I think [they] should leave us with a sense of wonder at = the=20 successes in probing the large-scale nature of the physical universe = and=20 caution in deciding just how well we understand the situation."

"The basic tenets of inflation plus cold dark matter have not yet = been=20 confirmed definitively," Turner admits. He contends, however, that a = survey=20 under way to map the location of 1 million nearby galaxies and the = planned=20 launch of two NASA missions to record the cosmic microwave background = in=20 unprecedented detail "could make the case soon."

Peebles raises another criticism, which Turner acknowledges: The = existence=20 of an accelerating universe implies that we live during a very special = time in=20 the history of the cosmos. This circumstance harks back to the = different=20 behavior of the two components=97matter and energy=97that contribute = to the=20 critical density. The amount of mass per unit volume declines as the = universe=20 expands, but the energy density, at least in its simplest form, = remains the=20 same. Indeed, it is sometimes referred to as the cosmological = constant.

Observations suggest that right now, the densities of matter and = funny=20 energy are roughly equal. The energy density is just beginning to take = over=20 from matter density as the factor controlling cosmic expansion. At an = earlier=20 time, when the mass density was higher, the global effect of gravity = would=20 have been attractive, and we would not have observed the universe to = be=20 accelerating.

The big question, quips Turner, "is the Nancy Kerrigan question: = 'Why me,=20 Why now?'" There's only one period when matter and energy densities = are=20 comparable, he notes, "and that's today, and we happen to be around." =

Although he finds that seeming coincidence "bothersome," Turner = doesn't see=20 it undermining the model of an accelerating universe. He says, "Often = in=20 science as you answer one question, a new question is raised."

At the end of the debate between Turner and Peebles, moderator = Margaret J.=20 Geller of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in = Cambridge, Mass.,=20 took a straw poll. She asked the listeners if they thought that a = century from=20 now, the basic concepts exciting astronomers this year would be = cornerstones=20 of understanding. Most of the audience thought the concepts would be=20 substantially different.

Even if today's models endure, "solving cosmology does not mean the = end of=20 the study of the universe, nor even the beginning of a less exciting = period of=20 inquiry," Turner says in a monograph that accompanied his talk.

"A list of today's puzzles is long enough and challenging enough to = occupy=20 astrophysicists for decades: What are the objects that make gamma-ray = bursts,=20 and how do they work? How do galaxies form stars and light up the sky? = How are=20 stars born? . . . Is there life elsewhere in the cosmos? . . .

"With the flood of data coming, the list will only grow longer and = more=20 interesting," Turner concludes. "I am confident that there will be = plenty of=20 challenges for next century's astrophysicists."

From Science News, = Vol. 154, No.=20 25 & 26, December 19 & 26, 1998, p. 392.
Copyright =D3 1998 by Science = Service.

References:

Peebles, P.J.E. 1998. Is cosmology solved? Nature of the = Universe=20 Debate: Cosmology Solved? October. Washington, D.C.

Turner, M.S. 1998. Cosmology solved? Quite possibly! Nature of = the=20 Universe Debate: Cosmology Solved? October. Washington,=20 D.C.

Further Readings:

Cowen, R. 1998. Studies support an accelerating universe. = Science=20 News 154(Oct. 31):277.

______. 1998. Repulsive force in the cosmos? Science News = 153(March=20 21):185.

______. 1998. Circles = in the=20 sky. Science News 153(Feb. 21):123.

______. 1997. From soup to us. Science News 151(June = 7):354.

______. 1996. Coloring the cosmos. Science News 150(Dec.=20 21&28):392.

______. 1996. Deuterium provides a cosmic numbers game. Science = News=20 149(May 18):309.

Sources:

Jim Peebles
Princeton University
Joseph Henry = Laboratory
Jadwin=20 Hall
Princeton, NJ 08544

Michael S. Turner
University of Chicago
Departments of = Physics and=20 Astronomy & Astrophysics
Enrico Fermi Institute
Chicago, IL=20 60637-1433

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